You may have noticed that I haven’t had any posts for last few days.  It’s not because things aren’t happening in Ukraine; things are happening every day.  However, in light of Mariupol staying relatively calm, my posts would likely have been more like rants than the measured and factual information that I try to pass along.

As I say, Mariupol has been relatively calm. People are still quite tense, but I can understand how having a foreign army some twenty miles away from one’s home might make a person jumpy.  Adding to the unease is people’s wariness about the upcoming winter.  It was already expected to be quite cold, and now there is the expectation that people may not be able to heat their homes sufficiently.  I’ve been sending some money to my wife for a while (as it turns out, I’ve been about doubling her salary), but now the banks are making it difficult to withdraw money — when they have it — so she might not be able to collect what I have sent her for this month.  In short, living in Mariupol is not that easy these days.

The sooner my wife can come to the US, the better, but such things are not only up to us.  When I first submitted my wife’s immigration paperwork, the USCIS was taking almost 10 months to process petitions.; the target time for such things was 5 months.  In the end, it took 7 months, so it seems that USCIS was really making progress.  However, the next step in the process is the National Visa Center, and all those backlogged petitions were sent like a flood to the NVC.

I got word last week that all the information for my wife’s visa has been received, but because of the large number of petitions they currently have, they expect it to be at least 60 days until their processing/review is complete.  I’m hoping they are wrong; I hope it’s more like the USCIS estimate, and things will move on to the embassy (which does the interview and approves the visa) far quicker than expected.

I had really been hoping that my wife and I would be celebrating Thanksgiving in the US this year, followed by our wedding anniversary a couple days later.  However, if we’re looking at a 60-day time frame, then the embassy wouldn’t have the petition until the beginning of November, which means our first holiday together would probably be Christmas instead.

I guess we just keep our fingers crossed; there’s really nothing more to be done at the moment.  Given that it took the NVC over three weeks to respond to an email I had sent them, we might very well be in for that 60 day wait.  (In contrast, I sent an email to the embassy in Kiev, and got an answer two days later.)

Amnesty International has released a report stating that Russia is unequivocally an active and contributing party to the war in Ukraine.  Again, this is something that has been “known” for a long time, but as with the OSCE announcement last week, it is good to have neutral confirmation.  Today, Russia refused to meet with UI to discuss the report.

What Russia is doing, however, is highlighting parts of another (or maybe the same) AI report that documented abuses by the warring parties.  Again, a known issue, with some particularly brutal occurrences being done by the rebels against civilians who didn’t support them.  The Ukrainian army or their affiliated militias aren’t angels either, but those incidents have been far less brutal and lethal.  Nevertheless, Russian media is highlighting the reported abuses by the Ukrainian side while downplaying or dismissing the abuses by the Russian and rebel side.  In other words, textbook hypocrisy.

Mariupol has been relatively calm for the past couple days, but things are definitely not returning to normal. Although there is no active military engagements, there are still things happening in and around the city.  I read a report yesterday that the Russians/rebels (at this point there’s hardly a difference) were using the lull to reposition artillery and fortify positions.  Apparently such activities are excluded by the truce and cease-fire.

In Mariupol, there was some unusual but ultimately non-disruptive activity surrounding the president’s visit.  Poroschenko promised some additional personnel and hardware to defend the city, but I have not read if that has arrived or been deployed yet.  The most tell development is kind of a “curfew” and cordon around the city from 10pm to 6am each night.  It is to keep saboteurs from entering the city, but having been to Mariupol, I’m wary of its effectiveness.  People will need to provide proof of residence to enter the city during the curfew hours, and I presume that patrols on the street might be on the look out for “suspicious” people during that time.

My wife says they are doing OK, but “waiting every day for the shelling.”  It seems most people in Mariupol are sure that the fighting around their city is not yet over, and given history and what I’ve been reading, they are probably right.  I really hope that won’t be the case, but it is not a strong hope, I have to say.

“We are alive and I’ll try to write as much as possible.”  This is not the sort of thing I like to read in messages from my wife.  Neither statement should be needed, particularly the first one.

I said I was skeptical of the truce and ceasefire, and it seems that skepticism was well-founded.  Shelling and Grad rockets have been bombarding Mariupol for the past two nights.  There are confirmed casualties, including the death of a woman (a civilian) by shrapnel.  The militants in Donetsk posted on their Twitter account that they were/had taken Mariupol.  (In an interview with a militant commander in the Russian held town of Novoazovsk the day of the truce announcement, he said they still had plans to take Mariupol.)

Russia and those rebel leaders all signed this truce, and then proceeded to break it in less than 24 hours.  There are reports today of Russian armor moving across the border into the Luhansk region, expanding the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.  Was the truce nothing more than a PR stunt and an attempt to get Ukrainian forces to relax?  There has been little reason to trust their (Russia and the rebels) so far, and this was just more proof of that.  How you do deal honorably with people who have no honor?

This conflict cannot continue as it has. I don’t want Ukraine to become like Afghanistan of the 80’s, but I don’t see how this Russian aggression can be stopped without greater assistance — including lethal ordinance — to the Ukrainian military.  In messages I sent to my Congressional representatives, I said that I didn’t want my next trip to Ukraine to be for the funeral of my wife or one of her family.  Without help, that could very well be the reason.

Today a truce and cease-fire was announced.  While I welcome this and hope it holds true, recent history with the rebels gives me some doubt.

Previously, the rebels have used cease-fires and other attempts at resolution to  further their own violent goals.  A previous unilateral cease-fire implemented by Ukraine saw no cessation in rebel activity; in fact, during that period they caused the largest single loss to the Ukrainian army to that point (the downing of a military transport, killing 59 people).  More recently, Ukrainian troops exiting an encircled city via a rebel-created humanitarian corridor were fired upon by the rebels.  And just a week or so ago, a transport truck flying white flags and having the word “children” painted on the sides pulled up to a Ukrainian checkpoint and opened fire on the soldiers there.  (In case you were wondering, no, it wasn’t “children” doing the shooting.)

Time and again, the rebels have shown themselves to be untrustworthy, so I am dubious of how well this truce and cease-fire will work.  Moreover, it probably doesn’t address the issue of Russian forces in the country (because, according to Russia, there aren’t any).  I know that Poroshenko wants a peaceful and diplomatic solution, but if your opponent is without honor, how can you come to an honorable accord?  (Also, I sometimes feel that Poroshenko is yielding too much in some instances.  I’m not saying he shouldn’t compromise, but there should still be limits.)

Again, I’m hoping for the best, but given recent history, I’m waiting to see concrete steps before I put any faith into it.

Although it has been known for months that Russian artillery has been firing into Ukraine, it was only yesterday that the independent group Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) finally documented incidents of it.  While I respect the work of independent monitoring organizations, I think this documentation could have come much sooner.

Russia, of course, has been denying that their military was firing into Ukraine.  Even when the photographic evidence was pretty clear, they would come up with nonsensical responses or just outright denials.  Occam’s Razor has not been Russia’s friend in their aggression.  (As an example of Russian explanations, consider this:  their media has reported that MH17 was not shot down by Russian troops [or Russian-controlled rebels] using a BUK surface-to-air missile.  In actuality — according to Russian news reports — MH17 was the missing airliner from flight MH370 that had been smuggled to Amsterdam, loaded with blood-drained corpses, piloted by remote control until it was over rebel territory, and then destroyed by a self-destruct device on the plane.  I’m not kidding — that was a story that had actually been reported by the Russian media.  Because Russian troops shooting down a civilian airliner is just far too simple an explanation.)

So anyway, I’m glad that OSCE has finally agreed with journalists’ reports from the past months about Russian artillery fire.  Hopefully, this is just a first step to independent verification of active Russian activity in and toward Ukraine.

I spoke with my wife last night — well, my wife, her sister Inna and her mother (sort of).  Their mood was very tense.  My wife kept assuring me that she was OK, but Inna said there was “much fear.”  (Inna also mentioned that my wife sometimes had to walk — to work, I’m guessing — in the dark, which is not comforting at all.  I’m going to suggest she take taxis if the buses aren’t running.)

Things have been relatively quiet in Mariupol over the past few days.  From news reports, it appears that the Russians are fortifying their positions at Novoazovsk, and working to gain a second front to the north of the city.  (If you think I’m being harsh by stating that the Russians are doing this, in the face of Putin’s/Moscow’s denials of any Russian army in Ukraine, I suggest you Google “putin denies troops crimea.”  You’ll see the pairing of articles with denials in March and acknowledgements in April.  You can’t trust Putin.)

My wife has been doing what she can to stock supplies at her son’s house.  They had already started to collect some things in advance of an expected hard winter, but now it seems there is a more urgent and immediate need.  Given the scarcity of some products in the stores, the prices are probably going up.  Fortunately, I send my wife some money each month, so she probably can still get the items she needs (assuming they are available).

Up until now, this blog has mostly been about my trips to Ukraine.  Unfortunately, given recent events, I think I need to modify the default purpose to include updates on events in Ukraine, and especially those around Mariupol.

Mariupol is my wife’s hometown, and a place I have visited multiple times.  With Russian troops and armor bearing down it — and have no doubt, it is most definitely the Russians — it seems quite likely that Mariupol will be attacked.

To say that these events concern me is an understatement.  Hundreds of people are fleeing Mariupol, but (so far, at least) my wife and her family are not among them.  I have urged them to go elsewhere, at least temporarily, but most people in Ukraine do not have the mobility that people in the US do.  You know Donetsk, where some of the most protracted and damaging fighting has been going on?  Only about 30% of that city of over 1 million was able to get out.  Most people just don’t have cars to hop into and drive away.

So I will continue to watch things, and I will post information I learn and messages from my wife.  I do this mostly to keep my family and friends up to date, but anyone else is welcome to the information as well.  Undoubtedly, politics will creep into some of my posts; given the situation, it is nearly unavoidable.  I’m sorry for that; I know that not everyone is an international political junkie.  (If I happen to write something that you disagree with, keep it to yourself.  When your wife is in danger, then you can have a say.)

From my wife, just this morning (translated and paraphrased as needed):  “My thoughts are constantly working in fear and I can not think of anything else … [I]n supermarkets are empty shelves, with the only products being ketchup and cream powder. … Maybe I was not lucky that I was not born in the country, but I’m close to my family in this difficult time and may be able to do something to help them. … I did not think of this before, that it could be so difficult and scary to live. … I feel your warmth around and it gives me a little strength to survive…”

The vast majority of the people in Mariupol have only wanted a peaceful city and a united Ukraine.  Even when the rebels were occupying some of the buildings and causing all sorts of strife, rallies for peace greatly outnumbered anything the DNR was able to scrape up.  Even this past week, a rally (or two) for Mariupol solidarity drew several thousand people.  But clearly peace is not part of Putin’s plan, so “dangerous” Mariupol will be made to suffer.