It’s been a while since I last wrote and I wanted to get something up before the year was over. Unfortunately it’s not a post about things getting back to normal in Ukraine. It did seem like things were improving, starting just after my previous post. In September, an agreement for a ceasefire and truce was reached and, unlike the previous ceasefires and truces that had been reached, actually seemed to be working, more or less.

That seems to be over now, with Russian attacks on the increase since late November. OSCE monitors have been repeatedly blocked when trying to verify troop and weapons withdrawls, their drones have been jammed and shot down over Russian-held territory, and on several occasions, OSCE personnel have even been threatened and shot at. Gosh, it’s almost like the Russians don’t want those international monitors seeing what they’re doing.

That’s because what they’re doing is in violation of the Minsk agreements that they say they support. However, actions speak far louder than words, and the recent takeover, mining and looting of a small village outside of Mariupol shows quite clearly that Minsk is only something they expect Ukraine to adhere to.

So, the year ends largely in the same state it started, and 2016 will probably be more of the same — and sadly, probably worse too.  It would be nice if V and I can get back there next year, but clearly there are a lot of things that we will need to consider when making our plans.

A couple one-offs that have been gathering dust:

• http://www.examiner.com/article/russian-media-admits-that-regular-russian-troops-took-debaltseve
• Similarly, Putin stated that there were troops in Ukraine during his December “state of the state” speech; it was later walked back to say that he meant those off-duty military “volunteers.” You know, the “volunteers” that show up with the tanks and rockets and stuff.  (By this point, Putin should either admit that he’s sending troops and weapons into Ukraine, or confess that he’s such a poor leader that the Russian military and/or individuals with access to military armaments just do whatever the hell they want.  Strong and criminal or feckless and incompetent — it’s one or the other.
• I’ve said time and again that nearly every culture on the planet has better claim to Crimea than the Russians do. Here’s a great illustration of that: https://dribbble.com/shots/2421607-Crimea-History
• It appears that there is factional fighting between the “warlords” in Luhansk, and the regime in Donetsk is better described as a criminal organization than a government. When the DNR gang took over, they closed just about all the groceries and markets, gave the goods and properties to their cronies, who re-opened things mere days later, often with the same staffs in place. Sounds pretty Mafia-like to me…

UPDATE 2 (08/18/2015): One of the wounded people has died, bringing the total killed in the attack to 3. And the latest report Special Monitoring Mission of the OSCE has this statement: “In government-controlled Sartana (15km north-east of Mariupol), the SMM observed and carried out analysis on 11 craters, concluding that either 122 or 152mm artillery rounds – mostly fired from the east – had caused them.” That means that Russians, using weapons that were supposedly withdrawn, did the shelling.

UPDATE 1 (08/17/2015): The numbers for Sartana appear to be 2 killed, 6 wounded, and 46 (or 52) buildings damaged.

A few days ago, the Russian foreign ministry was mouthing off to anything that would listen about August being the time for American and/or NATO provocations against Russia. This, from the people who couldn’t figure out why the West would take the unprecendented move of imposing sanctions on them. Completely out of the blue! Totally unprovoked! What armed invasion of a sovereign country?

Unfortunately, the US/NATO/West/World wasn’t being provocative enough, so Russia has decided to launch multiple attacks along the contact line, including against villages in the Mariupol area. Tonight the Russians were pounding Sartana, a town about 20 km NE of Mariupol. There were civilian causalities and the cannonade was audible in Mariupol.

It is likely only a matter of time before Mariupol is under direct attack (again).

I think it’s time to stop thinking about sanctions and provocations, just deal with the problem. I noted a looooong time ago that I didn’t want to see Ukraine be the newest Afghanistan, but I think that might be unavoidable now.

A month or so ago, the Russians decided to pull their forces out of the occupied town of Shirokino, which is about 20 kilometers to the east of Mariupol. Of course they did this out of the goodness of their hearts (and not at all to consolidate the weapons and soldiers that were involved in daily attacks on the Ukrainian forces there) and called on Ukraine to do the same. After the Russians were gone, the Ukrainians pulled back too, and a little over a week ago, the OSCE essentially called Shirokino a demilitarized town. (They could have also called it a ghost town, because there was literally no one still residing there and most of the buildings had suffered some sort of damage.) The Ukrainian Army was getting ready to fully withdraw from the Shirokino area, but that didn’t sit well with the people of Mariupol. Last weekend, there was a substantial rally in Mariupol that called upon the Army to remain in Shirokino.

Today, new shelling from the area of Shirokino resumed, proving that the Russians hadn’t bothered to leave after all. Shelling was done via 122mm and 152mm guns, which had been banned from the contact line area (which includes Shirokino) by the Minsk 2 agreement.  (No point in calling it a “peace treaty” these days, now is there?) The explosions were close enough to Mariupol that they could be seen (the smoke from them) and/or heard in the center of the city.

My wife spoke with her mother today, and everyone remains fine, but they still aren’t safe. Russian is still committed to military-based instability in Ukraine, even if they don’t actually take Mariupol and create a land crossing to the floundering Crimean area they stole last year. Given that they destroyed a couple million tons of food that were sanctions-prohibited in Russia, rather than giving it to the people in Eastern Ukraine whom they have supposedly been helping with “humanitarian” assistance, kind of proves that they (a) really don’t care about the people there, other than as pawns of their games, and (b) have only military “solutions” in their playbook.

I am so thankful that my wife was able to get out of there before things started to slide off the cliff; she has just celebrated 5 months in the US.  I only wish her family, the people of Mariupol (and the rest of Ukraine) were able to live as safely in their own homes. But I doubt that will ever be the case so long as there is a Putin-dominated Russia on their doorstep.

Two things caught my eye over the past couple days.  First was the pronouncement from the Russian leadership in Ukraine that they were pulling their troops out of Shirokino and declaring the area a DMZ along the contact line.  A few hours after that statement, they started shelling Shirokino again.  Then today, I read another of Putin’s statements that there were “unequivocally” no Russian troops in Ukraine.  He was making the same “unequivocal” statements 15 months ago with regard to Crimea — just about a month before he “unequivocally” stated that there were Russian troops in Crimea.

I recall some commentator noting that Russia/Putin/the Kremlin (I don’t remember which term was used, but at this point they’re almost interchangeable) was behaving like a petulant child.  Given the above lies — saying one thing and doing another, or trying for a “fool me twice” scenario — I think the analogy is apt.

It’s been over two months since my last posting, but I’m sure no one’s been hurting for my comments.  I’m also finding it hard to transition this blog back to more mundane topics. Even though my wife is now in the US, I am still very concerned by the events in Ukraine.  I still have family in Mariupol, and my concern for their safety has not been abated.

In fact, Mariupol is probably more in danger now than it has been for a while. The truce is routinely being broken by the Russians and their DNR toadies, with the key flashpoint being Shirokino, a village only a couple dozen kilometers from Mariupol.

In addition to continued use of banned large-caliber weapons, the Russians have been playing “hide and seek” with the OSCE monitors so that their truce violations will get less public/international scrutiny.  The OSCE is very transparent in their movements, announcing where they will be going.  Russia monitors this, hides the evidence of the most incriminating violations before the OSCE arrives, and takes up positions and resumes firing once they have gone.  Shirokino did have a couple days of peace, that was only because the monitors stayed in the town, instead of returning to Mariupol.  (They left yesterday, so today were fresh reports of large artillery shelling and new tank movement.)

At this point, I don’t think anyone should be surprised by this chickenshit form of fighting that the Russians have adopted. Unfortunately, thousands of craven dipwads with guns — or in other words, the Russian army — can still outnumber the Ukrainian army, National Guard and volunteer battalions that are trying to defend Mariupol.

A new peace deal — one that looks remarkably like the previous peace deal — was worked out in Minsk this week.  Since then, Russia has sent more troops and artillery into Ukraine, and today one of the “leaders” of the “rebels” has said that there would be no ceasefire where they are currently fighting (Debaltseve).  By using the jackass logic of “the issue of Debaltseve wasn’t specifically addressed in the agreement,” he’s of the impression that the bombardment of the Ukrainian army can continue.

So here’s what we’ve got:

• Although the deal calls for all Russian heavy weaponry to be withdrawn from Ukraine, since Russia claims (despite countless evidence to the contrary) that none of their weapons are in Ukraine, it would seem that there’s nothing to be withdrawn.
• There’s not going to be a stop to the shelling of or fighting in Debaltseve, and since there are other conflict areas that were not “specifically address” in the agreement, likely the fighting will continue.
• President Poroshenko has said that if this peace deal fails, he’ll have to declare a state of war and impose martial law — and with the above two points, the deal has already failed.

There are reports out today that “the rebels” have forces and weapons that exceed some European countries.  IF we take Russia at its word and none of those forces or weapons came from them, then that means that Ukraine — unbeknownst to the Ukrainians — had one of the largest and most fully weaponized (with remarkably modern weapons) army in the world.  Strange how that could have happened in a country with severe unemployment, poverty wages, massive graft and rampant corruption at all levels of government…

So the Russian army will continue its invasion and conquest of Ukraine.  Martial law will be imposed throughout the country as a countermeasure to that invasion.  Average citizens will continue to suffer and die.  And there will be no peace in Ukraine.

Once again the eastern part of the city is being shelled by the Russian and Russian-wannabes who say they are fighting for their country.  At present, 15 people are dead, 76 wounded.

These rebels and Russian are without honor.  For months they have been decrying any supposed violation of the peace plan by the Ukrainian army, while they position rockets and artillery in civilian areas.  They use women, children and the elderly as human shields, and whenever casualties occur because the Ukrainian army fires back, the results are plastered all over Russian media as “proof” that the government in Kiev is hell-bent on destroying their own people.  Conveniently missing are all the provocations by the Russians themselves.

Now, discontent with merely shelling the villages surrounding Mariupol (and, I have read, ordering the civilian population to leave so that they may take over the houses for bases of operation), they have decided to attack Mariupol.

I did not want to see Ukraine become the newest Afghanistan, but I’m not sure that can be avoided.  If, as the rebel “leader” has stated, they have no plans for diplomacy and no intent to honor any treaties, then really the only option left is lethal military aid to the Ukrainian government.  I really don’t want that to happen, but I also don’t want to see my wife, her family, her friends or any of the innocent people in that country fall victim to the machinations of the Russian government and the petty ambitions of their Ukrainian lackeys.

UPDATE:  The death toll of this current attack now stands at 21.  86 wounded.  Not an update, the “DPR” — “People’s Republic of Donetsk” — is still not representing the people, still not a republic, still only a collection of cowards and criminals with guns.

UPDATE: Refreshed the page again — 27 dead, 97 wounded.

I have long thought/said/felt that the rebels were really nothing more that petty criminals being led by Russians.  There has been lots of support for that position:  the key leader in Donetsk was Russian; early on, the rebels offered convicts amnesty if they fought for the rebels; reports from late last year that only about 10% of the forces fighting at the Donetsk airport were native Ukrainians (according to the *rebels* that journalists talked to).  This has been, from the very outset, a Russian-driven campaign, and they stocked their ranks with the lowest classes of people.

You know what you get when you give thugs weapons?  Thugs with weapons.  That’s it.  Now that Russia — despite ridiculous denials — is pouring troops and weaponry over the border, the rebels feel that they are on top of the world.  To them, might makes right and you do what you want.  Thus this news from today:

“The leader of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region has said that rebel forces will seek to take over the entire province and will not initiate peace talks with government forces.

“The remarks by the leader of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, further clouded prospects for peace following days of intensified fighting in a conflict that has killed more than 4,800 people since April.

“‘We will advance to the very borders of the Donetsk Oblast,’ the Russian news agency Interfax quoted Zakharchenko as telling students in the rebel-held provincial capital on January 23.

“He added that ‘if I see a threat from other sides, we will liquidate it,’ Interfax reported.

“‘From our side, there will be no more attempts to talk about a truce,’ Zakharchenko said.”

So basically it seems that there is not longer any reason to try for peace talks.  At least, not until the Russian support is withdrawn.  That was the case last summer:  when the rebels were on the ropes, they were all for peace treaties and cease fires.  The Russians rearmed (and the kept it up) beginning around August, and now the rebels don’t feel the need to talk about peace anymore.

Thug logic at its best, which is the worst possible thing for Ukraine.

PS – I’m glad that my wife will soon be leaving Mariupol. I hope it is soon enough.

PPS – The UN reports that at least 5000 people have died in Eastern Ukraine since last April, but because of inconsistent reporting, the number might actually be “considerably higher.”

I’m pretty sure that a majority of Americans are probably unaware that there is still “something” going on in Ukraine.  Although I keep a close eye on things by reading assorted online sources, it is very, very rare when I hear anything about Ukraine on the radio or television.  So it was something of a surprise to hear two recent stories out of Ukraine on NPR.  Both stories represent major events in that war — just from the past week — and it’s unfortunate that only the particularly “big” things make it into the US news consciousness.

The first item was the bus of civilians that got hit by one of the indiscriminately fired rockets that have been used (by both sides) throughout this war.  In some ways, the shelling of this bus — which killed 12 people and left as many injured — is remarkably similar to the downing of the Malaysian airplane last year.  Namely, that the rebels took credit for the attack before they realized how badly they had screwed up.  Last year, they were crowing about taking down a military jet, then quickly deleted their posts when it was determined to have been the passenger jet. This time, they were congratulating themselves on their attack on a “military transport” before it was shown to have been an intercity bus.  Then, of course, the fake alternatives and finger pointing took off:  maybe it was the Ukrainian military (nope, the rocket came from the wrong direction), or maybe it was a mine (again no, the OSCE, plus video of the attack, indicate it was a rocket), or whatever else they can think of to shift blame.  Of course, Russia is going with the “shift blame” approach.

Russia crops up again in the other big story, the major offensive at the Donetsk Airport.  The airport has been the scene of fighting for months — all throughout the supposed cease fire — and in this past week, the Russian started a major offensive, collapsing what was left of the control tower, stepping up the fighting at the main terminal, and even preventing Ukrainian wounded from being removed from the battlefield.  Although Poroshenko and his military lead have ordered reinforcements, it could be “too little, too late.”  The Russians and the rebels are already saying that they control the rubble pile that used to be an international airport, which means they would have killed dozens of Ukrainian soldiers.

Isn’t it very curious how new onslaughts by the “rebels” always seem to happen right after a “humanitarian” convey illegally goes into Ukraine?  The correlation is pretty inescapable.  This, despite Russia’s increasingly laughable denials of any sort of military involvement or support in Ukraine.  Seriously, if the “rebels” were using ONLY arms and munitions that they captured from the few military posts in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — as has been claimed in the past (and maybe is still being said), they would have run out of ammunition months ago.  But according to Russia, those convoys only have water and potatoes…

There are estimates that the collapse of the Soviet, oops, I mean Russian economy will be manifest in the spring.  I don’t know if Ukraine can wait that long.  Plus, as has been demonstrated countless times throughout history, a country will sacrifice the welfare of its people in order to keep its military in top form.  Given that Russia is keeping its people in the dark about its involvement in Ukraine (polls show that a majority of Russians do not want their troops fighting in Ukraine), I have reason to believe that they would halt their ongoing invasions.

I only hope that everything goes well for my wife this week, so that she gets her visa and I am able to get her away from there, before Russian moves their amassed armaments along the border into southeast Ukraine in another drive for Mariupol.

I had considered (at one time) naming this post “I’ve fallen behind and I can’t catch up,” but became one of those phrases that sounds good the first time you hear it, but that you grow to dislike with repetition.  So this is “A year” — kind of a recap, kind of a summary, kind of a recollection.

I haven’t had a lot of time to post lately — “lately” being October until now.  But I’ve been kept busy by some good things — Christmas prep and celebration, updates and progress in my wife’s visa quest, and the ongoing “refurbishment” of my home for the anticipated arrival of my bride.

Let me start with the good news.  In November, my wife’s application package finally arrived in Kiev and she was given the go-ahead to set up her interview.  T’were it me, I would have been on the phone (or website) the moment I got the email, and while I don’t think my wife was dawdling, it did take a couple of weeks for her to work out the logistics (going to Kiev, leaving her job, moving to America, etc.).  Nevertheless, she got it all figured out, got things arranged, and in just over two weeks, she will be off to Kiev to go through her visa interview.  I have no doubt that she will pass, which means that she will have visa in hand before January is over.  She plans to leave her job at the end of the month, and after packing things up, I believe that she’ll probably set foot in Portland by the end of February.  (Don’t let the lack of exclamation points fool you; I couldn’t be more excited by all this.)

What this means for me is that I’m now in panic mode, or something close to it.  My heretofore casual house and home cleaning and preparation — because “someday” my wife would be coming — must now give way to a “she’ll be here in two months” cleaning mentality.  That’s where the panic comes from: I have a lifetime of bachelor clutter to clean, organize, dispose, hide or whatever I can do to make my house a presentable home for a married couple.  I do have to (or, really, want to) buy a couple items, but I don’t plan to make many furnishing changes at this point.  I want this to be a nice house, but I also want it to be plain enough so that my wife has a canvas to make this a home where she is comfortable.  Most of the work I need to do involves just going through tons of stuff — sorting, discarding, shifting around to different places in the house (e.g., I should probably take the main computer out of the bedroom and put it in my office now) — and that just takes a lot of time.  It’s crunch time.

A note I was going to make about November was that in addition to it being my 1 year wedding anniversary, it was also the 1 year anniversary of the start of the Maidan protests in Kiev.  My wife and I were in Kiev at that time (attending to some paperwork so that we could get married), and we walked through the square repeatedly.  Although there had been a massive gathering a couple days before (these were the images that were shown on TV), that first weekend was when it became an ongoing movement.  There weren’t that many people around at that point — just a couple dozen people standing around in the cold, making music or speeches to empty space.  It is difficult to imagine everything that has happened since sprang from something like that.  (Well, Russian deciding to invade Ukraine had a good deal to do with it as well.)

This post is getting long, so let me just a couple bullets of things that I had read and was going to mention:

• The plan to invade Crimea had been in the works for a decade.  I’m not sure how accurate this report was — I didn’t have the chance to read the whole thing — but the author was pointing to statements and actions that showed the plan to take over Crimea was something Russia had already been planning for a while.  If true, this would mean that Putin is a rank opportunist who took advantage of a period of civil uncertainty in order to violate international law and invade a sovereign country.
• I can’t spell “schadenfreude” without looking it up, but that’s definitely what I felt about the continuing collapse of the ruble.  Before the year was over, it surpassed the hryvnia to become the world’s least stable currency.
• The head of the Red Cross in Moscow states that the “humanitarian conveys” sent by Russia — using the Red Cross symbol without authorization — “quite probably” contained arms and ammunition.
• Russia steals the coal from Ukraine, then sells it back them.  The OSCE monitoring mission definitely stated (because they actually saw it) that coal was being taken from the Donbas region of Ukraine (where all the fighting is) into Russia.  Less than a week after I read that, there was a story about Russia being willing to sell coal to Ukraine — for very reasonable prices — in order to stabilize the electricity situation across the country.  (Ukraine had to take one of their nuclear plants offline for repairs, which had led to rolling blackouts in parts of the country.)
• And in December, Putin gave yet another speech rationalizing the invasion of Crimea — he compared Crimea to the Temple Mount.  Since that time, I think there’s even been another reason given.  With as frequently as the reason for the invasion have changed, it is hard to keep track of the current one.  I can’t help but make a comparison to a guilty child trying to offer any possible explanation as to how those cookies could have possibly disappeared from the cookie jar.

I can’t say what changes we might see in 2015, but I am happy that my wife will be leaving that uncertain situation and joining me here in the relatively stress-free Pacific Northwest.  I’ll definitely have to step up my Russian language lessons, but at least I’ll have someone around that I can practice with.