It’s been a while since I last wrote and I wanted to get something up before the year was over. Unfortunately it’s not a post about things getting back to normal in Ukraine. It did seem like things were improving, starting just after my previous post. In September, an agreement for a ceasefire and truce was reached and, unlike the previous ceasefires and truces that had been reached, actually seemed to be working, more or less.

That seems to be over now, with Russian attacks on the increase since late November. OSCE monitors have been repeatedly blocked when trying to verify troop and weapons withdrawls, their drones have been jammed and shot down over Russian-held territory, and on several occasions, OSCE personnel have even been threatened and shot at. Gosh, it’s almost like the Russians don’t want those international monitors seeing what they’re doing.

That’s because what they’re doing is in violation of the Minsk agreements that they say they support. However, actions speak far louder than words, and the recent takeover, mining and looting of a small village outside of Mariupol shows quite clearly that Minsk is only something they expect Ukraine to adhere to.

So, the year ends largely in the same state it started, and 2016 will probably be more of the same — and sadly, probably worse too.  It would be nice if V and I can get back there next year, but clearly there are a lot of things that we will need to consider when making our plans.

A couple one-offs that have been gathering dust:

• http://www.examiner.com/article/russian-media-admits-that-regular-russian-troops-took-debaltseve
• Similarly, Putin stated that there were troops in Ukraine during his December “state of the state” speech; it was later walked back to say that he meant those off-duty military “volunteers.” You know, the “volunteers” that show up with the tanks and rockets and stuff.  (By this point, Putin should either admit that he’s sending troops and weapons into Ukraine, or confess that he’s such a poor leader that the Russian military and/or individuals with access to military armaments just do whatever the hell they want.  Strong and criminal or feckless and incompetent — it’s one or the other.
• I’ve said time and again that nearly every culture on the planet has better claim to Crimea than the Russians do. Here’s a great illustration of that: https://dribbble.com/shots/2421607-Crimea-History
• It appears that there is factional fighting between the “warlords” in Luhansk, and the regime in Donetsk is better described as a criminal organization than a government. When the DNR gang took over, they closed just about all the groceries and markets, gave the goods and properties to their cronies, who re-opened things mere days later, often with the same staffs in place. Sounds pretty Mafia-like to me…