I had considered (at one time) naming this post “I’ve fallen behind and I can’t catch up,” but became one of those phrases that sounds good the first time you hear it, but that you grow to dislike with repetition.  So this is “A year” — kind of a recap, kind of a summary, kind of a recollection.

I haven’t had a lot of time to post lately — “lately” being October until now.  But I’ve been kept busy by some good things — Christmas prep and celebration, updates and progress in my wife’s visa quest, and the ongoing “refurbishment” of my home for the anticipated arrival of my bride.

Let me start with the good news.  In November, my wife’s application package finally arrived in Kiev and she was given the go-ahead to set up her interview.  T’were it me, I would have been on the phone (or website) the moment I got the email, and while I don’t think my wife was dawdling, it did take a couple of weeks for her to work out the logistics (going to Kiev, leaving her job, moving to America, etc.).  Nevertheless, she got it all figured out, got things arranged, and in just over two weeks, she will be off to Kiev to go through her visa interview.  I have no doubt that she will pass, which means that she will have visa in hand before January is over.  She plans to leave her job at the end of the month, and after packing things up, I believe that she’ll probably set foot in Portland by the end of February.  (Don’t let the lack of exclamation points fool you; I couldn’t be more excited by all this.)

What this means for me is that I’m now in panic mode, or something close to it.  My heretofore casual house and home cleaning and preparation — because “someday” my wife would be coming — must now give way to a “she’ll be here in two months” cleaning mentality.  That’s where the panic comes from: I have a lifetime of bachelor clutter to clean, organize, dispose, hide or whatever I can do to make my house a presentable home for a married couple.  I do have to (or, really, want to) buy a couple items, but I don’t plan to make many furnishing changes at this point.  I want this to be a nice house, but I also want it to be plain enough so that my wife has a canvas to make this a home where she is comfortable.  Most of the work I need to do involves just going through tons of stuff — sorting, discarding, shifting around to different places in the house (e.g., I should probably take the main computer out of the bedroom and put it in my office now) — and that just takes a lot of time.  It’s crunch time.

A note I was going to make about November was that in addition to it being my 1 year wedding anniversary, it was also the 1 year anniversary of the start of the Maidan protests in Kiev.  My wife and I were in Kiev at that time (attending to some paperwork so that we could get married), and we walked through the square repeatedly.  Although there had been a massive gathering a couple days before (these were the images that were shown on TV), that first weekend was when it became an ongoing movement.  There weren’t that many people around at that point — just a couple dozen people standing around in the cold, making music or speeches to empty space.  It is difficult to imagine everything that has happened since sprang from something like that.  (Well, Russian deciding to invade Ukraine had a good deal to do with it as well.)

This post is getting long, so let me just a couple bullets of things that I had read and was going to mention:

• The plan to invade Crimea had been in the works for a decade.  I’m not sure how accurate this report was — I didn’t have the chance to read the whole thing — but the author was pointing to statements and actions that showed the plan to take over Crimea was something Russia had already been planning for a while.  If true, this would mean that Putin is a rank opportunist who took advantage of a period of civil uncertainty in order to violate international law and invade a sovereign country.
• I can’t spell “schadenfreude” without looking it up, but that’s definitely what I felt about the continuing collapse of the ruble.  Before the year was over, it surpassed the hryvnia to become the world’s least stable currency.
• The head of the Red Cross in Moscow states that the “humanitarian conveys” sent by Russia — using the Red Cross symbol without authorization — “quite probably” contained arms and ammunition.
• Russia steals the coal from Ukraine, then sells it back them.  The OSCE monitoring mission definitely stated (because they actually saw it) that coal was being taken from the Donbas region of Ukraine (where all the fighting is) into Russia.  Less than a week after I read that, there was a story about Russia being willing to sell coal to Ukraine — for very reasonable prices — in order to stabilize the electricity situation across the country.  (Ukraine had to take one of their nuclear plants offline for repairs, which had led to rolling blackouts in parts of the country.)
• And in December, Putin gave yet another speech rationalizing the invasion of Crimea — he compared Crimea to the Temple Mount.  Since that time, I think there’s even been another reason given.  With as frequently as the reason for the invasion have changed, it is hard to keep track of the current one.  I can’t help but make a comparison to a guilty child trying to offer any possible explanation as to how those cookies could have possibly disappeared from the cookie jar.

I can’t say what changes we might see in 2015, but I am happy that my wife will be leaving that uncertain situation and joining me here in the relatively stress-free Pacific Northwest.  I’ll definitely have to step up my Russian language lessons, but at least I’ll have someone around that I can practice with.

UPDATE:  My point exactly:  “One month in, Ukraine truce exists in name only”

I’ve been busy this past week and haven’t had a chance to post, but Ukraine (and my wife) are never far from my mind.  Overall, you could say that this week was a “no news is good news” sort of week.  If something was going on in Mariupol, I would make the time to write about it; since I was able to be distracted, you can take that as a sign that things remain stable.

Stable, at least in Mariupol, but still tense.  There was a Coast Guard related incident on Thursday to the east of Mariupol, but there was nothing too significant in the city itself.  The same cannot be said for other parts of Eastern Ukraine.

Sadly, Ukraine is being forgotten by the media.  I think that when people heard about the truce and ceasefire a month ago, they thought, “thank goodness that’s all over now,” and moved on to other things. However, there has been ongoing fighting since that truce/ceasefire was announced, mostly in and around Donetsk, but many other locations as well.  One reporter in the area tweeted that he hadn’t really seen any reduction in the fighting at all.

This week a map starting making the rounds showing territory that had been seized by the Russians since the truce/ceasefire was announced.  It is astounding.  It seems the only party adhering to the ceasefire is the Ukrainian military; although they will respond when fired upon, being non-assertive has allowed the Russians to just start taking more area.

Also this past week:

• Russian increased the persecution of the Crimean Tartars — essentially following the game plan that was used in 1944.  They are also starting to amass troops along the border with mainland Ukraine, and they have enacted additional laws making any form of dissent punishable by deportation.
• Partisan leaders in Donetsk acknowledged — apparently without permission from Moscow — that members of the Russian army were assisting them, in “advisory” roles.  This seems to be at odds with statements by partisan fighters this week that put the division of military personnel fighting at the Donetsk airport as 90% Russian, and only 10% Ukrainian.
• A poll of Russian citizens showed over 60% did not want to commit troops to Ukraine, with only 12% saying that troops were already in Ukraine.  This is why the Kremlin continues to conduct very quiet burials of dead service members, and continues to lie to their families. It really pays to have total control of the information flow, doesn’t it?

I don’t know what more to say.  Until the world starts paying more attention to this ongoing (and growing ) threat in Ukraine, Russia will continue to run roughshod over international laws and treaties — all for the grandiose ambitions of that petty Putin, who seems determined to be the next Stalin or Hitler.

A little view of how nice can be Mariupol in the fall when it isn’t being shelled…

http://www.0629.com.ua/news/630605
(Don’t worry about the text; it’s just a weather report for the coming week.)

I haven’t posted for about a week because, fortunately, things have been relatively stable in Mariupol  It is a rare day/night when there isn’t shelling of a checkpoint or two on the outskirts of the city, and in other parts of the region (oblast), the truce/cease-fire is a bitter joke.  People in Mariupol are still on edge, and if that wasn’t enough, they also had a hurricane.

Technically, it wasn’t a hurricane, but that’s what their local media have been calling it.  They had a strong, early fall storm last week that had a good deal of rain and some pretty strong winds, a la a hurricane.  Trees were knocked down throughout the city, including two or three large spruce trees in front of the main administrative building (“City Hall”).  Power was out in assorted places (my wife’s mom’s house lost electricity, but still had gas for cooking and heat), and on one day most of the schools were closed.  I recognized many part of town from the photos on 0629.com.ua of the damage.

Things are getting back to normal now — “normal” being a relative term for a country at war.  The weekend was pretty nice, and the weather for the coming week looks much more calm and temperate.  My wife came through it all OK, with only a little water seepage around the window.

Last Sunday (before the hurricane) was UN Peace Day.  (Sorry, I never get my Peace Day cards out in time.)  Mariupol City Day was the day before, so I’m pretty sure it either incorporate peace themes, or they just carried the celebration over into Sunday.  What happened in Moscow is actually more interesting:  the Peace Day/anti-war march there attracted almost 30,000 people.  By contrast, a “pro-war” march today only got about half that many people.  Although the Kremlin controls the bulk of Russian media, more and more people aren’t believing the story the being put out.  It’s kind of hard to hide the truth about military members being at night without any ceremony, and their families being told the person died from an accident during a training exercise.  (And then reporters get roughed up if they try to follow up on things.)

But that’s all I’ll say about that; I want to keep this blog mostly focused on me (when I’m traveling), my wife, the immigration process, and things in Mariupol. As always, I’ll keep everyone informed about any major events.

I will note that my wife has started to consider Belarus as a possible destination for her mother, sister and nephew, should the fighting become too intense.  She says that she won’t leave, because Zhenya (her son) wouldn’t be able to leave, and she didn’t want to be away if the unfortunate should befall him.  I’m still working on her to leave (if necessary), but it is progress that she’s looking at “escape routes” for her family now.

Today was Mariupol City Day, a celebration of the founding of the city some 236 years ago.  Yup, my wife’s hometown has been around nearly as long as the county that she wants to immigrate to.  Funny how things work.  If you’d like to see some pictures and videos of the day’s events, here are some links on the local Mariupol news website:

http://www.0629.com.ua/article/624054
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/623945
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/623940
http://www.0629.com.ua/news/623665
(The articles are written in Russian, of course, but a party is a party.)

From what I read and can see in the pictures, there was a march/parade down Lenina, the main street that leads into downtown, and then most of the activities were held in the large park behind the Drama Theater.  I know those places quite well; I spent a good deal of time in that park during my trips there.

It sounded like this year’s celebration was particularly important to people.  There was a special presentation to the military stationed there, and other events that highlighted the current situation.  Although there was some artillery fire in the regions north and east of Mariupol, the city itself was safe — and apparently had some good weather — at least for today.

I had arranged for some flowers and a package of supplies to be delivered to my wife this week.  Although I didn’t know about Mariupol day when I placed my order (although, in retrospect, I should have expected it; those Ukrainians have all sort of holidays), it is kind of nice that everything arrived, just a day or so before.  I didn’t hear from my wife today, but I think it likely that the groceries contributed to a special meal for the family today.

Rather than adding some snark and ranting, as I had originally planned (I’ll move that to my next post), I’ll end now with that positive note and a new picture of my wife.  It’s not a special picture or anything; it’s just new, from a couple days ago, with her holding the flowers I had sent.  (You can tell it’s her because she’s wearing that Sochi jacket that she had on a lot during our time in Dubai. 🙂 )

You may have noticed that I haven’t had any posts for last few days.  It’s not because things aren’t happening in Ukraine; things are happening every day.  However, in light of Mariupol staying relatively calm, my posts would likely have been more like rants than the measured and factual information that I try to pass along.

As I say, Mariupol has been relatively calm. People are still quite tense, but I can understand how having a foreign army some twenty miles away from one’s home might make a person jumpy.  Adding to the unease is people’s wariness about the upcoming winter.  It was already expected to be quite cold, and now there is the expectation that people may not be able to heat their homes sufficiently.  I’ve been sending some money to my wife for a while (as it turns out, I’ve been about doubling her salary), but now the banks are making it difficult to withdraw money — when they have it — so she might not be able to collect what I have sent her for this month.  In short, living in Mariupol is not that easy these days.

The sooner my wife can come to the US, the better, but such things are not only up to us.  When I first submitted my wife’s immigration paperwork, the USCIS was taking almost 10 months to process petitions.; the target time for such things was 5 months.  In the end, it took 7 months, so it seems that USCIS was really making progress.  However, the next step in the process is the National Visa Center, and all those backlogged petitions were sent like a flood to the NVC.

I got word last week that all the information for my wife’s visa has been received, but because of the large number of petitions they currently have, they expect it to be at least 60 days until their processing/review is complete.  I’m hoping they are wrong; I hope it’s more like the USCIS estimate, and things will move on to the embassy (which does the interview and approves the visa) far quicker than expected.

I had really been hoping that my wife and I would be celebrating Thanksgiving in the US this year, followed by our wedding anniversary a couple days later.  However, if we’re looking at a 60-day time frame, then the embassy wouldn’t have the petition until the beginning of November, which means our first holiday together would probably be Christmas instead.

I guess we just keep our fingers crossed; there’s really nothing more to be done at the moment.  Given that it took the NVC over three weeks to respond to an email I had sent them, we might very well be in for that 60 day wait.  (In contrast, I sent an email to the embassy in Kiev, and got an answer two days later.)

Amnesty International has released a report stating that Russia is unequivocally an active and contributing party to the war in Ukraine.  Again, this is something that has been “known” for a long time, but as with the OSCE announcement last week, it is good to have neutral confirmation.  Today, Russia refused to meet with UI to discuss the report.

What Russia is doing, however, is highlighting parts of another (or maybe the same) AI report that documented abuses by the warring parties.  Again, a known issue, with some particularly brutal occurrences being done by the rebels against civilians who didn’t support them.  The Ukrainian army or their affiliated militias aren’t angels either, but those incidents have been far less brutal and lethal.  Nevertheless, Russian media is highlighting the reported abuses by the Ukrainian side while downplaying or dismissing the abuses by the Russian and rebel side.  In other words, textbook hypocrisy.

Mariupol has been relatively calm for the past couple days, but things are definitely not returning to normal. Although there is no active military engagements, there are still things happening in and around the city.  I read a report yesterday that the Russians/rebels (at this point there’s hardly a difference) were using the lull to reposition artillery and fortify positions.  Apparently such activities are excluded by the truce and cease-fire.

In Mariupol, there was some unusual but ultimately non-disruptive activity surrounding the president’s visit.  Poroschenko promised some additional personnel and hardware to defend the city, but I have not read if that has arrived or been deployed yet.  The most tell development is kind of a “curfew” and cordon around the city from 10pm to 6am each night.  It is to keep saboteurs from entering the city, but having been to Mariupol, I’m wary of its effectiveness.  People will need to provide proof of residence to enter the city during the curfew hours, and I presume that patrols on the street might be on the look out for “suspicious” people during that time.

My wife says they are doing OK, but “waiting every day for the shelling.”  It seems most people in Mariupol are sure that the fighting around their city is not yet over, and given history and what I’ve been reading, they are probably right.  I really hope that won’t be the case, but it is not a strong hope, I have to say.

“We are alive and I’ll try to write as much as possible.”  This is not the sort of thing I like to read in messages from my wife.  Neither statement should be needed, particularly the first one.

I said I was skeptical of the truce and ceasefire, and it seems that skepticism was well-founded.  Shelling and Grad rockets have been bombarding Mariupol for the past two nights.  There are confirmed casualties, including the death of a woman (a civilian) by shrapnel.  The militants in Donetsk posted on their Twitter account that they were/had taken Mariupol.  (In an interview with a militant commander in the Russian held town of Novoazovsk the day of the truce announcement, he said they still had plans to take Mariupol.)

Russia and those rebel leaders all signed this truce, and then proceeded to break it in less than 24 hours.  There are reports today of Russian armor moving across the border into the Luhansk region, expanding the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.  Was the truce nothing more than a PR stunt and an attempt to get Ukrainian forces to relax?  There has been little reason to trust their (Russia and the rebels) so far, and this was just more proof of that.  How you do deal honorably with people who have no honor?

This conflict cannot continue as it has. I don’t want Ukraine to become like Afghanistan of the 80’s, but I don’t see how this Russian aggression can be stopped without greater assistance — including lethal ordinance — to the Ukrainian military.  In messages I sent to my Congressional representatives, I said that I didn’t want my next trip to Ukraine to be for the funeral of my wife or one of her family.  Without help, that could very well be the reason.

Today a truce and cease-fire was announced.  While I welcome this and hope it holds true, recent history with the rebels gives me some doubt.

Previously, the rebels have used cease-fires and other attempts at resolution to  further their own violent goals.  A previous unilateral cease-fire implemented by Ukraine saw no cessation in rebel activity; in fact, during that period they caused the largest single loss to the Ukrainian army to that point (the downing of a military transport, killing 59 people).  More recently, Ukrainian troops exiting an encircled city via a rebel-created humanitarian corridor were fired upon by the rebels.  And just a week or so ago, a transport truck flying white flags and having the word “children” painted on the sides pulled up to a Ukrainian checkpoint and opened fire on the soldiers there.  (In case you were wondering, no, it wasn’t “children” doing the shooting.)

Time and again, the rebels have shown themselves to be untrustworthy, so I am dubious of how well this truce and cease-fire will work.  Moreover, it probably doesn’t address the issue of Russian forces in the country (because, according to Russia, there aren’t any).  I know that Poroshenko wants a peaceful and diplomatic solution, but if your opponent is without honor, how can you come to an honorable accord?  (Also, I sometimes feel that Poroshenko is yielding too much in some instances.  I’m not saying he shouldn’t compromise, but there should still be limits.)

Again, I’m hoping for the best, but given recent history, I’m waiting to see concrete steps before I put any faith into it.

Although it has been known for months that Russian artillery has been firing into Ukraine, it was only yesterday that the independent group Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) finally documented incidents of it.  While I respect the work of independent monitoring organizations, I think this documentation could have come much sooner.

Russia, of course, has been denying that their military was firing into Ukraine.  Even when the photographic evidence was pretty clear, they would come up with nonsensical responses or just outright denials.  Occam’s Razor has not been Russia’s friend in their aggression.  (As an example of Russian explanations, consider this:  their media has reported that MH17 was not shot down by Russian troops [or Russian-controlled rebels] using a BUK surface-to-air missile.  In actuality — according to Russian news reports — MH17 was the missing airliner from flight MH370 that had been smuggled to Amsterdam, loaded with blood-drained corpses, piloted by remote control until it was over rebel territory, and then destroyed by a self-destruct device on the plane.  I’m not kidding — that was a story that had actually been reported by the Russian media.  Because Russian troops shooting down a civilian airliner is just far too simple an explanation.)

So anyway, I’m glad that OSCE has finally agreed with journalists’ reports from the past months about Russian artillery fire.  Hopefully, this is just a first step to independent verification of active Russian activity in and toward Ukraine.