It’s been a long time since I posted, and that’s not because there hasn’t been anything going on. As I’d noted long ago, most of my posts are meant to be about Mariupol and the family and friends impacted by what happened there. That’s partly why, even when I was in Ukraine earlier this year, I didn’t do many posts about my time there. But sometimes there are events that warrant a few words, even if they aren’t directly about Mariupol, family or friends.
While I generally stopped marking day counts some time ago, there’s definitely something “impressive” about noting that this war has now lasted 1000 days. One thousand, or as one pundit noted, the 1000th day of Putin’s 3-day war. And here’s another number to note: it’s less than 100 days until the 3 year mark of the war. Of course, if you go back to when Russian forces first invaded a sovereign country, this conflict has been going on for over 10 years.
I don’t recall if I’ve ever actually posted on of these daily infographic totals images, but this seems like a good time to show one:
Personnel is an estimated count of the wounded and killed, probably a little higher than reality (if that can ever be determined), but most experts agree that it’s not wildly inflated. And that daily increase number — 1610 in this case — is not a fluke; it rarely dips below 1200 these days. (Ukraine’s losses are generally considered to be one-third to one-half of the Russian numbers. By any metric, Ukraine has been amazing.)
But even before that 1000 day mark, the world slipped into the worse possible reality for Ukraine’s future. For some reason, a plurality of voting US citizens —not a majority — decided to elect venal and hate-filled village idiot instead of thoughtful and compassionate politician. I’m not even going to bother with the idiot’s name; I will call it “VI” if a direct reference is needed.
Were Kamala Harris to be have been elected, I think Ukraine would have largely been guaranteed an on-going and consistent, if not improved, measure of support from the US. Harris didn’t want to fully embrace the Biden legacy, but I think this is one area where she would have followed his lead. While there are things Joe Biden could have done differently, better or more quickly for Ukraine, he truly did a lot, and it’s possible that Ukraine would not have survived to 1000 days without his leadership.
Now it’s all a big question mark, with most signs pointing to a bad outcome. The idiot has long claimed to be a master at many things and have the ability to end the war in a single day. Obviously not a reality in any but the most feeble of minds. But the idiot can definitely set the stage for Ukraine’s failure.
Often the idiot and many of his political ilk have said the quickest way to end the war is to just give the captured areas of Ukraine — some even say a little more — to Putin and voila, the hostilities will all cease. This is the way to end a war, like killing yourself is the way to bring down those high grocery bills. Of course, Ukraine won’t go along with this, nor is it up to the US or any other western nation to tell them they have to surrender. But that’s not to say the idiot won’t do things to try and force this outcome:
- Cutting off support. This is almost a given. No more money, no more weapons, no more support of any kind. The US accounts for about 50% of the overall weapons and ammunition that Ukraine has been using. The 100% they receive has allowed them to last these past 1000 days and even make some small gains here and there. With only 50% of the support coming in, it will also certainly be a losing situation.
- Ending sanctions. This is kind of the other side of the coin. While supplying aid has bolstered Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia and Russian interests has been dampening their ability to wage war. Blocking oil transactions saps Russia of needed funds, as does keeping them disconnected from key monetary tools. Restricting electronics and other materials hinders the ability to construct new weapons and maintain the ones they have. Russia has lost almost 1000 tanks, and the sanctions mean that only a handful of tanks can be produced each month to replace the losses. The entirety of Russian society is feeling the pinch. Remove those sanctions and you give Russia the means and spirit to fight on.
- Personnel changes. This one gets overlooked a lot, but the first time VI was squatting in the Oval Office, it replaced a very competent ambassador with someone less so. (Not “bad,” but not as good.) Biden put someone who has been a strong supporter of Ukraine in the ambassador role, and I suspect that’s going to be counteracted fairly early on after the idiot is sworn in. Having the right people in the right places makes all the difference, and having the wrong person there can spell disaster. (You know, that sentence could apply to the US for the coming days, too.)
I’m glad that Biden has lifted one of the longest-held and least beneficial limits to Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, and I really hope the fast-tracking and delivery of approved aid is largely completed before the idiot manages to screw things up. We can always hope for the best — and I do — but I’m pretty sure there will be dark days ahead in this worst of possible realities.